Bayelsa Flip: Diri Crosses Carpet With Whole Government House – and Leaves PDP’s Last Oil Gate Ajar.

Inside the 48-hour gale that moved an Ijaw governor into Tinubu’s camp and handed APC the keys to six crude states. Monday night, Governor Douye Diri sneaked out of Government House, Yenagoa, through the creek exit usually reserved for gunboats. By 11 a.m. Tuesday he was on the podium at the Eagle Square, Abuja, raising the broom symbol of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

In one swing, Bayelsa – the PDP’s only oil-bearing fortress – turned blue. APC now controls six of Nigeria’s nine Niger-Delta oil states (Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Cross River, Edo, Ondo, Bayelsa) and commands 78 % of daily crude output.

The signs we missed

- 14 October: Diri’s commissioner for information refused to attend a PDP governors’ Zoom call on campaign council funding.
- 24 October: Bayelsa House of Assembly passed a “friendship resolution” praising President Tinubu’s waterfront protection initiative – a motion not listed on the Order Paper.
- 30 October: Diri hosted APC national chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, to a closed-door dinner inside the Government House banquet hall; PDP state chair was not invited.

Midnight ferry ride

An aide who was on the speedboat described the crossing:
“We left the jetty 23:45 – governor, deputy, SSG, three commissioners, one suitcase each. No sirens. A naval gunboat led. We docked at Ogbia creeks, drove to Port Harcourt airport, boarded a chartered ATR to Abuja. By 02:30 we were in Transcorp Hilton. Even the protocol director learnt on WhatsApp.”

Entire structure collapses

Before the Abuja rally ended, 21 of 24 Bayelsa PDP councillors had sent in defection letters. The three senators (all PDP since 1999) signed jointly. House of Assembly: 22 of 24 members crossed. State PDP chairman, Clever Ikisikpo, tried to dissolve the executive, but police sealed the secretariat “to prevent breakdown of law and order.”

Why Diri jumped – the raw numbers

1. Funding drought

Federal monthly allocations to Bayelsa dropped 18 % after NNPC’s new crude-for-tax deal. FAAC backlog hit ₦34 billion. Diri privately told aides: “Abuja tap is dry; let us move to the tap.”

2. EFCC heat

A ₦17 billion flood-contract probe filed in September names three commissioners and the governor’s younger brother. APC insiders promised “soft landing” if he defected before November, sources at the meeting told this paper.

3. 2027 maths

With Rivers already APC (thanks to Fubara’s switch) and Akwa Ibom leaning, Tinubu’s camp argued Bayelsa was surrounded. “Better to join early and negotiate terms than be forced out in 2027,” Ganduje was overheard telling Diri on 30 October.

The Ijaw backlash

IYC (Ijaw Youth Council) issued a 24-hour ultimatum for Diri to return to PDP, calling the move “betrayal of the creek.” Ex-militant leader “General Shoot-to-Kill” threatened to shut flow stations if oil derivation share is touched. Niger Delta Avengers (inactive since 2018) re-opened a Twitter handle Tuesday night, posting: “We warned against political harlots.”

Oil arithmetic

Bayelsa produces 330,000 barrels/day (11 % of national output). APC now controls:
- Akwa Ibom – 550,000 bpd
- Rivers – 450,000 bpd
- Bayelsa – 330,000 bpd
- Delta – 280,000 bpd
- Edo – 180,000 bpd
- Ondo – 120,000 bpd

Total: 1.91 million bpd out of 2.45 million. That is 78 % of crude, 68 % of gas, and roughly ₦2.8 trillion yearly in 13 % derivation.

What happens next?

- INEC must re-issue certificate to APC as ruling party in Bayelsa within 14 days.
- PDP plans court challenge, citing anti-defection law; legal experts say governor enjoys immunity until 2027 election.
- Tinubu to visit Yenagoa next week to receive formal broom; security agencies already redrawing operational templates to factor in Ijaw anger.

Bottom line

Douye Diri’s midnight bolt is more than party switch; it is a tectonic shift that hands APC the oil spigot, strands PDP in the desert, and re-writes the 2027 map. Whether the creeks accept the new landlord or shut the valves will decide if the blue wave becomes black gold – or black smoke.

This has been The Red Hot Report from Pepper-Room. The news that bears it all.

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